jay4
0x8a2f99a2b3844b346b217444a38ca539a05281f0
- Realised P&L
- $-379.39
- Volume
- $55.8k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $88.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.805 | $32.20 | +$3.00 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.064 | $19.05 | +$4.05 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.083 | $16.50 | −$7.50 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.515 | $15.45 | −$0.15 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $5.40 | −$6.60 |
| Netanyahu out by August 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.09 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.38at 0.013US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
- +$23.40at 0.871Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?
- +$11.16at 0.210Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?
- +$9.55at 0.936Fed rate cut by September 18?
- +$9.00at 0.910Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 03:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 02:45 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.29 |
| 07-15 07:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $12.00 |
| 07-01 22:05 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.64 |
| 05-04 10:33 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BUY | 0.016 | $11.20 |
| 03-04 05:22 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.967 | $289.03 |
| 03-01 14:15 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? | SELL | 0.021 | $28.60 |
| 02-24 05:52 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.45 |
| 01-21 09:30 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.891 | $17.82 |
| 01-21 09:27 | Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.40 |
| 01-21 09:27 | Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.90 |
| 01-21 09:25 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.008 | $20.40 |
| 01-21 09:25 | Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 01-21 09:23 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? | SELL | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 01-21 09:22 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.009 | $23.40 |