mx156
0x8a1e1e8fec1fb91f12ba3b8ebec52d2eda21bd03
- Realised P&L
- $-5.6k
- Volume
- $1.68M
- Markets traded
- 350
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded350
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.065 | $2.7k | −$524.39 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $508.34 | +$8.34 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.004 | $241.86 | −$1.4k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.055 | $55.00 | +$5.00 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.035 | $5.60 | −$9.76 |
| Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.012 | $0.17 | −$9.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.040Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
- +$3.3kat 0.096Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
- +$1.2kat 0.200Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$931.44at 0.049Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
- +$804.68at 0.565Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999998 | $25.00 |
| 09-17 17:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.0037024455 | $19.26 |
| 09-17 12:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $110.00 |
| 09-17 12:32 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.0040825537 | $101.12 |
| 09-15 13:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $225.00 |
| 09-15 13:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | SELL | 0.0065157721 | $238.76 |
| 09-13 18:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $104.00 |
| 09-13 18:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $104.92 |
| 09-10 15:03 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.0849999994 | $5.36 |
| 09-10 08:12 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.1007097631 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 11:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 11:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $150.00 |
| 09-08 11:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $85.00 |
| 09-03 10:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $45.00 |
| 09-02 18:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.0094546734 | $35.00 |