PolyBot

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Traders

mx156

0x8a1e1e8fec1fb91f12ba3b8ebec52d2eda21bd03

Realised P&L
$-5.6k
Volume
$1.68M
Markets traded
350
Open portfolio
$3.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded350
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.0770.065$2.7k$524.39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3000.305$508.34+$8.34
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes0.0240.004$241.86$1.4k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.0500.055$55.00+$5.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.0950.035$5.60$9.76
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? · Yes0.7000.012$0.17$9.83

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 17:09Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.0699999998$25.00
09-17 17:09Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?SELL0.0037024455$19.26
09-17 12:33Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.07$110.00
09-17 12:32Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?SELL0.0040825537$101.12
09-15 13:36Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.08$225.00
09-15 13:36Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?SELL0.0065157721$238.76
09-13 18:34Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.08$104.00
09-13 18:34Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?SELL0.11$104.92
09-10 15:03Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.0849999994$5.36
09-10 08:12Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.1007097631$10.00
09-08 11:40Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.01$30.00
09-08 11:40Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.07$150.00
09-08 11:39Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.13$85.00
09-03 10:53Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.15$45.00
09-02 18:20Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.0094546734$35.00