DFKbullish
0x8a16fc7ff21626e6cb80d27ae963d0c0a6843676
- Realised P&L
- $35.8k
- Volume
- $3.43M
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $999.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)11.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.046 | $999.52 | −$2.6k |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.1k |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.91 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$897.18 |
| Xi Jinping out before October? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.75 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
| Starmer out in 2025? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.9kat 0.267[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$63.9kat 0.202Trump and Biden both win nomination?
- +$-45.00at 0.045Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on February 1, 2024?
- +$-68.58at 0.004Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination?
- +$-95.99at 0.016Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on April 1, 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 07:03 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.07 | $5.0k |
| 09-19 14:08 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0445220513 | $712.35 |
| 09-19 14:02 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.13 | $247.00 |
| 09-19 13:58 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.12 | $169.08 |
| 09-19 13:57 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.72 |
| 09-12 09:53 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 09-09 02:08 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1887602213 | $1.6k |
| 09-09 02:07 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1871759262 | $1.9k |
| 09-09 02:06 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.07 | $693.26 |
| 07-26 05:13 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.8k |
| 07-24 15:45 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.12 | $990.00 |
| 07-24 15:44 | Xi Jinping out before October? | BUY | 0.0652508384 | $160.00 |
| 07-24 15:43 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.9k |
| 07-22 03:58 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.11 | $2.8k |
| 07-21 02:47 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.08 | $82.88 |