0x89e6f53629939f15b73089cec0518bdd2a733c40
- Realised P&L
- $7.83
- Volume
- $60.26
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $23.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.855 | $7.53 | +$5.24 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $2.68 | +$0.91 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.915 | $2.62 | +$0.33 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.665 | $2.34 | +$0.05 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.690 | $2.32 | +$0.03 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.195 | $1.79 | −$0.50 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.250 | $1.51 | −$0.78 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? · Up | 0.630 | 0.380 | $1.38 | −$0.91 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.320 | 0.135 | $0.97 | −$1.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.19at 0.270SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$1.23at 0.650S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4?
- +$-2.29at 0.590S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on August 4?
- +$-2.29at 0.720SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 15:01 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999469 | $2.29 |
| 08-06 07:01 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.6299999065 | $2.29 |
| 08-05 10:56 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.2699999293 | $2.29 |
| 08-05 10:41 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7199999497 | $2.29 |
| 08-05 02:32 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999169 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 18:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999716 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 10:24 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.6499999716 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 02:23 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on August 4? | BUY | 0.5899999304 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 18:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.29 |
| 08-03 10:04 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 20:10 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 08-02 00:32 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2599999251 | $2.29 |
| 08-01 16:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.659999918 | $1.77 |