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0x89a730b74c204625cf19d3d64ff8e8c412b89918
- Realised P&L
- $-15.7k
- Volume
- $751.0k
- Markets traded
- 813
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded813
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.577 | 0.556 | $1.1k | −$42.54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET · Down | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET · Down | 0.257 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET · Down | 0.539 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$296.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.506Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$1.9kat 0.711Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
- +$1.7kat 0.539Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
- +$1.6kat 0.565Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
- +$1.5kat 0.518Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:26 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.56536327 | $565.36 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4600758 | $230.04 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5008 | $250.40 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.495231 | $247.62 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4901096 | $245.05 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5050436 | $252.52 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.484487 | $242.24 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.498879 | $249.44 |
| 11-01 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4766006 | $238.30 |
| 11-01 15:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5612509749 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 15:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | SELL | 0.3280913673 | $176.39 |
| 11-01 15:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | SELL | 0.3666634146 | $631.38 |
| 11-01 15:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7394626 | $369.73 |
| 11-01 15:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7884394 | $394.22 |
| 11-01 15:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7907604 | $395.38 |