yangshifu
0x8995d34879180f1afe7362b4baa389179785ebed
- Realised P&L
- $-4.45
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $16.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $13.68 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.645 | $1.31 | −$0.11 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $1.27 | +$0.02 |
| Clippers vs. Rockets · Clippers | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.73 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? · No | 0.961 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.63at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
- +$0.29at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$0.22at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
- +$0.22at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:06 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.70 |
| 10-18 10:05 | Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999998028 | $1.42 |
| 09-10 12:59 | Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.20 |
| 08-29 08:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.9979999681 | $15.10 |
| 07-23 07:05 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $15.10 |
| 05-31 09:48 | Will Solana dip to $70 in May? | BUY | 0.9989999915 | $105.00 |
| 05-05 12:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |
| 04-26 09:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $103.98 |
| 04-26 09:38 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.11 |
| 04-21 02:57 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $106.99 |
| 04-16 02:47 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9971721582 | $105.97 |
| 04-09 08:49 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.99 |
| 03-24 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $105.00 |
| 03-19 08:57 | Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in March 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.21 |
| 03-11 10:56 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.73 |