polfarm1
0x8986091dbe19133ad1b9e9a01d264b62c204ba09
- Realised P&L
- $-56.54
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $33.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.00at 0.080Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
- +$17.42at 0.677Will "The Fix" score at least 20 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$5.95at 0.378Will "The Fix" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$4.50at 0.250Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?
- +$3.44at 0.360Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 15:26 | Will Alison Jarman win the next Devonport mayoral election? | SELL | 0.37 | $4.44 |
| 09-12 15:26 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.67 |
| 09-12 15:26 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting? | SELL | 0.51 | $12.75 |
| 09-12 15:26 | Will Boris Guido Morey Sifuentes win the next Maynas mayoral elections? | SELL | 0.352 | $8.80 |
| 09-12 15:26 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $21.00 |
| 09-12 15:26 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.74 | $25.97 |