Apalmer55
0x89506a1b855075cd6412e3ced3ab5996b374a408
- Realised P&L
- $-5.67
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $66.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.978 | $58.05 | +$4.60 |
| Human moon landing in 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.015 | $8.84 | −$31.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.24at 0.819US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$2.49at 0.800Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
- +$2.35at 0.831Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
- +$0.84at 0.950Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?
- +$0.56at 0.730Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-13 21:21 | Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $53.45 |
| 02-13 21:20 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.964 | $40.25 |
| 02-12 22:59 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $2.12 |
| 02-07 00:43 | Human moon landing in 2026? | BUY | 0.0656209752 | $40.00 |
| 02-07 00:43 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $42.35 |
| 02-04 14:37 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9579999852 | $40.00 |
| 02-02 23:13 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | BUY | 0.0452458878 | $3.00 |
| 01-31 13:59 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.7879198875 | $20.00 |
| 01-31 12:28 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.8794770505 | $20.00 |
| 01-31 11:29 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.995 | $91.73 |
| 01-31 00:41 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.9399999991 | $21.03 |
| 01-30 23:12 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | SELL | 0.75 | $21.04 |
| 01-25 19:33 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.7799999917 | $54.46 |
| 01-25 16:26 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | BUY | 0.7299999683 | $20.48 |
| 01-25 02:49 | Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.49 |