0x894729b476db1486db473872a4178a5fc5ef4635
0x894729b476db1486db473872a4178a5fc5ef4635
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $28.8k
- Markets traded
- 364
- Open portfolio
- $261.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded364
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.546 | 1.000 | $170.97 | +$77.58 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.996 | $90.96 | +$1.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$963.10at 0.095Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?
- +$179.77at 0.045Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 29?
- +$93.12at 0.661Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?
- +$78.35at 0.519Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18?
- +$59.88at 0.396Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 14:21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.98 | $44.75 |
| 10-08 14:21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.98 | $44.75 |
| 10-08 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.8375240591 | $39.78 |
| 10-08 11:05 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.336523516 | $4.84 |
| 10-08 11:05 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.3499999964 | $4.85 |
| 10-08 11:05 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.3399999789 | $4.84 |
| 10-08 10:47 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.4819833858 | $39.08 |
| 10-07 12:17 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.6878434097 | $39.63 |
| 10-07 09:26 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.0346476306 | $1.71 |
| 10-07 08:43 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.2748391335 | $11.56 |
| 10-06 14:45 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.8220846634 | $39.78 |
| 10-06 14:37 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 6? | BUY | 0.8900852781 | $39.77 |
| 10-05 12:29 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.910624618 | $39.78 |
| 10-05 12:18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.7699999332 | $4.96 |
| 10-05 12:18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.679999978 | $4.95 |