Fredericdfbzdf
0x891463f411dbeacc57c57a773de7db4c615ba8a6
- Realised P&L
- $207.88
- Volume
- $18.5k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $74.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Jazz (-1.5) · Grizzlies | 0.540 | 0.545 | $74.67 | +$0.69 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-05? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.40 |
| Livesport Prague Open: Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger · Mai Hontama | 0.292 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$502.98at 0.500Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$431.71at 0.500Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?
- +$87.14at 0.500Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$85.66at 0.500Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu?
- +$85.31at 0.500Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 07:11 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $854.14 |
| 10-19 07:11 | Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.87 |
| 10-19 07:11 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $855.00 |
| 10-19 07:11 | Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.998 | $865.27 |
| 10-19 07:10 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $28.81 |
| 10-19 07:09 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $848.30 |
| 10-19 07:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 07:09 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $422.00 |
| 10-19 07:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | SELL | 0.998 | $220.28 |
| 10-19 07:08 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $456.00 |
| 10-19 07:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | SELL | 0.998 | $660.84 |
| 10-19 07:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 10-19 07:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | BUY | 0.999 | $882.00 |
| 10-19 03:35 | Spread: Jazz (-1.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $73.98 |
| 09-21 12:12 | Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-09-21? | BUY | 0.29 | $20.88 |