spica258
0x88f21dd6a92650ee8abe1287bfe4d0655de2acce
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $255.0k
- Markets traded
- 186
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded186
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? · No | 0.982 | 0.992 | $776.67 | +$7.44 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 1? · Yes | 0.996 | 0.999 | $771.51 | +$2.23 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.995 | $770.89 | +$1.66 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on October 1? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $769.62 | +$0.39 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 1? · No | 0.993 | 0.993 | $769.01 | −$0.22 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 1? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $457.09 | +$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.07at 0.972Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 1?
- +$47.85at 0.978Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 28?
- +$39.85at 0.985Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19?
- +$33.89at 0.990Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 2?
- +$32.18at 0.985Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 16:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.982 | $769.23 |
| 09-30 16:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.997 | $456.40 |
| 09-30 16:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.992361414 | $769.23 |
| 09-30 16:06 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $769.23 |
| 09-30 16:06 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9927794821 | $769.23 |
| 09-30 16:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9956149653 | $769.28 |
| 09-29 17:34 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 30? | SELL | 0.991 | $383.82 |
| 09-29 17:33 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9929999981 | $384.60 |
| 09-29 12:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 29? | SELL | 0.9472098909 | $375.79 |
| 09-28 16:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9881477269 | $384.86 |
| 09-28 16:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9954859611 | $384.86 |
| 09-28 16:20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9921646801 | $384.86 |
| 09-28 16:19 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 29? | BUY | 0.97 | $384.83 |
| 09-28 02:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 28? | BUY | 0.9881592468 | $1.8k |
| 09-28 02:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.9952672071 | $1.8k |