NicholasWilkins3556
0x88f19eaccdcf349be03af16eb6e058d7648b8e46
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $146.7k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $478.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · No | 0.740 | 0.867 | $243.63 | +$35.69 |
| Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.850 | $201.45 | +$99.54 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.045 | $26.28 | −$67.16 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.048 | $3.42 | −$34.74 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.067 | $2.79 | −$30.81 |
| Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.125 | $0.68 | −$0.35 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.005 | $0.02 | −$2.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$700.80at 0.270Spread: Millonarios FC (-1.5)
- +$675.92at 0.170Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
- +$473.28at 0.490Obras vs. San Lorenzo
- +$301.86at 0.220Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
- +$291.03at 0.110Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 17:11 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $4.93 |
| 04-11 08:43 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | SELL | 0.79 | $314.42 |
| 04-11 06:02 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 04-11 06:00 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $9.54 |
| 04-09 22:04 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 04-07 15:53 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $502.46 |
| 03-31 08:20 | Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | SELL | 0.24 | $14.40 |
| 03-30 16:51 | Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | SELL | 0.73 | $5.84 |
| 03-30 13:51 | Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | SELL | 0.24 | $270.72 |
| 03-29 21:17 | Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $308.88 |
| 03-29 17:15 | Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $98.90 |
| 03-26 13:28 | MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $40.60 |
| 03-26 13:27 | MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $64.96 |
| 03-26 09:27 | MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.59 | $558.14 |
| 03-26 08:19 | Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.54 | $41.04 |