criptepizdec
0x88c4b192ecdafd1980d27721c7f7300db8b5ef08
- Realised P&L
- $0.45
- Volume
- $15.54
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $3.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.983 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat? · No | 0.940 | 0.968 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.814 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.56at 0.640Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$0.43at 0.700Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud
- +$0.33at 0.690Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
- +$0.12at 0.890Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.01at 0.990Will Netflix reach $455 in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 06:44 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.32 |
| 01-29 12:14 | Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 01-29 12:12 | Will the Democratic Party win the WV-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 01-25 11:07 | Will Netflix reach $455 in February? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 01-25 11:04 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 01-24 08:17 | Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 19:20 | Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 19:16 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 01-16 10:27 | Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 01-16 09:20 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |