0x889779ef9097042e944133fc564df850442fc4bf
- Realised P&L
- $237.94
- Volume
- $9.4k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $137.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.485 | $89.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.205 | $48.81 | −$1.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.20at 0.108Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
- +$58.81at 0.220Iran leadership change by June 30?
- +$33.58at 0.630US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$30.44at 0.588US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$24.84at 0.370US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 15:44 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999992 | $50.00 |
| 09-17 14:52 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $90.00 |
| 05-30 05:31 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.481657957 | $107.84 |
| 05-30 05:31 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $87.22 |
| 05-30 05:31 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.7204536382 | $79.41 |
| 05-26 18:32 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999949 | $38.94 |
| 05-26 18:27 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999984 | $39.32 |
| 05-13 16:52 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3802052392 | $100.49 |
| 05-13 16:08 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4839704657 | $108.36 |
| 05-13 02:12 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $109.45 |
| 05-10 15:55 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.6414490072 | $90.01 |
| 05-10 13:37 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0472946649 | $8.03 |
| 05-10 13:33 | Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? | SELL | 0.708075073 | $82.43 |
| 04-26 06:34 | Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? | BUY | 0.6899999997 | $80.33 |
| 04-24 11:23 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.209999985 | $9.95 |