0x8886fd082a6d266a9dfe94026b59fb304f9dbeff
0x8886fd082a6d266a9dfe94026b59fb304f9dbeff
- Realised P&L
- $95.87
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $0.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Botswana win on 2026-09-28? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.001 | $0.41 | −$38.56 |
| Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer · Valentin Royer | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$258.40at 0.173Will FC Seoul win on 2026-08-15?
- +$21.17at 0.702Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$2.31at 0.820Cincinnati Open: Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta
- +$-0.84at 1.020Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
- +$-5.49at 0.176Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 20:39 | Will Botswana win on 2026-09-28? | BUY | 0.0475681713 | $38.97 |
| 09-26 13:11 | Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer | BUY | 0.1099999996 | $25.00 |
| 09-23 16:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 12:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $20.00 |
| 08-31 12:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.9699999995 | $20.00 |
| 08-29 20:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1891724495 | $20.00 |
| 08-28 19:05 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-08-28? | BUY | 0.0469178915 | $20.00 |
| 08-20 17:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | BUY | 0.6599999958 | $46.91 |
| 08-19 21:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5399999967 | $6.63 |
| 08-19 21:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999931 | $20.00 |
| 08-19 21:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 08-18 16:22 | Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges | BUY | 0.1199999963 | $25.85 |
| 08-18 13:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 08-15 11:22 | Will FC Seoul win on 2026-08-15? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 08-14 17:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | SELL | 0.08 | $1.90 |