BetTom42
0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270
- Realised P&L
- $5.64M
- Volume
- $11.21M
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar50.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.93Mat 0.635Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.62Mat 0.328Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$892.1kat 0.347Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
- +$848.1kat 0.408Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$283.4kat 0.505Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-05 21:50 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.54 | $5.1k |
| 11-05 21:50 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.54 | $4.7k |
| 11-05 21:48 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.53 | $286.20 |
| 11-05 21:46 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.53 | $612.07 |
| 11-05 21:46 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.53 | $2.3k |
| 11-05 21:44 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $535.50 |
| 11-05 21:43 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.27 | $410.46 |
| 11-05 21:42 | Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.3k |
| 11-05 21:38 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $25.50 |
| 11-05 21:37 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.615 | $4.6k |
| 11-05 21:36 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.7k |
| 11-05 21:35 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5 | $14.7k |
| 11-05 21:35 | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5 | $516.43 |
| 11-05 21:29 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.49 | $73.50 |
| 11-05 21:23 | Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.6k |