lkuyk
0x8849c4d62a346108db8e1e12de2c06e3da31a19f
- Realised P&L
- $-83.15
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $12.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $10.23 | +$0.03 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · Yes | 0.100 | 0.080 | $2.16 | −$0.54 |
| Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.25 | −$1.49 |
| Bulls vs. Nets · Bulls | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Lakers vs. Rockets · Rockets | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.53 |
| Avalanche vs. Islanders · Avalanche | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Panthers vs. Wild · Wild | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.97 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.16at 0.998Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?
- +$0.14at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 10?
- +$0.14at 0.998Will Solana reach $250 October 13-19?
- +$0.13at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29?
- +$0.13at 0.998Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 09:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.99699991 | $10.20 |
| 10-27 09:49 | Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.003484809 | $1.74 |
| 09-05 08:00 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.90 |
| 09-05 07:47 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.1 | $2.70 |
| 08-02 09:18 | Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.60 |
| 06-15 02:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 06-07 07:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 06-02 11:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-31 05:33 | Netanyahu out by May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-27 11:23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-23 09:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-17 09:56 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.96 |
| 05-14 06:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 05-11 09:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 05-08 01:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |