Fsrtyusa
0x881cb91e5568397066a5eddb8bffa07d59e5bb58
- Realised P&L
- $-11.71
- Volume
- $10.7k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $5.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $5.98 | −$0.01 |
| Raptors vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.03at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 06:27 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.00 |
| 09-14 03:44 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.14 |
| 07-24 07:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9989999945 | $7.95 |
| 07-15 08:38 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $5.15 |
| 06-30 06:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 06-23 05:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.00 |
| 06-02 08:14 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $5.28 |
| 04-15 02:58 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$150 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | BUY | 0.9989999021 | $9.10 |
| 03-21 08:09 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.87 |
| 03-21 08:07 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $8.77 |
| 03-13 05:14 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $8.78 |
| 01-14 09:43 | Raptors vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.4299999779 | $6.42 |
| 01-14 09:41 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | SELL | 0.5 | $7.29 |
| 01-14 09:38 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.994 | $334.16 |
| 01-14 07:41 | Cavaliers vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.5099999767 | $7.44 |