4844
0x87cd92c47f890372d93f56115dbb30d1b0ac0ade
- Realised P&L
- $-87.30
- Volume
- $118.3k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $15.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.001 | $6.18 | −$117.38 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $1.66 | −$0.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $1.54 | −$0.01 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.991 | $1.43 | −$0.01 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.989 | 0.994 | $1.34 | +$0.01 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.994 | $1.33 | −$0.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.995 | $1.22 | −$0.00 |
| Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $1.11 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.51at 0.007Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$12.50at 0.008Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$3.34at 0.964Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$0.60at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 18?
- +$0.59at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 07:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.22 |
| 09-15 07:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.33 |
| 09-15 07:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999978 | $1.33 |
| 09-15 07:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.44 |
| 09-15 07:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.55 |
| 09-15 07:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.66 |
| 07-01 20:15 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.11 |
| 07-01 20:14 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.12 |
| 07-01 20:11 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 2? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.16 |
| 07-01 20:11 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on July 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.36 |
| 07-01 20:10 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 2? | BUY | 0.9989994133 | $1.26 |
| 07-01 20:09 | Will Baidu have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999278 | $1.31 |
| 07-01 20:08 | Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999984 | $1.22 |
| 07-01 20:08 | Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9959995109 | $1.45 |
| 07-01 20:08 | Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.39 |