8796b01a723066063eba805833778c276162eb9f
0x8796b01a723066063eba805833778c276162eb9f
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $6.21M
- Markets traded
- 9,794
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,794
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on September 20? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $980.00 | +$0.98 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on September 20? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $445.78 | +$0.67 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on September 20? · No | 0.990 | 0.433 | $375.02 | −$482.19 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 20? · No | 0.989 | 0.297 | $296.01 | −$687.96 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on September 20? · Yes | 0.982 | 0.325 | $273.54 | −$552.54 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 20? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $270.60 | +$0.27 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 20? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $1.11 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.7kat 0.091Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16?
- +$5.5kat 0.442Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 20?
- +$1.1kat 0.091Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 16?
- +$839.33at 0.091Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?
- +$754.39at 0.091Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 09:35 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.1512772417 | $146.44 |
| 09-20 09:29 | Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on September 20? | SELL | 0.2454900777 | $34.14 |
| 09-20 09:28 | Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on September 20? | SELL | 0.2433000436 | $55.79 |
| 09-20 09:27 | Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on September 20? | SELL | 0.2574305807 | $103.78 |
| 09-20 09:17 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.2321557143 | $81.25 |
| 09-20 09:17 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.0686570152 | $66.09 |
| 09-20 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.1514981046 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 09:10 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.7742075143 | $270.97 |
| 09-20 09:10 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.1881303383 | $3.39 |
| 09-20 09:09 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.8282772 | $828.28 |
| 09-20 08:58 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.179 | $0.90 |
| 09-20 08:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.9866666667 | $14.80 |
| 09-20 08:41 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.1716946071 | $5.57 |
| 09-20 08:40 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.69894189 | $698.94 |
| 09-20 08:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.1674545455 | $9.21 |