0x878F46fA2c3CE59F91191538e11Abc20D980723d-1772382057255
0x878f46fa2c3ce59f91191538e11abc20d980723d
- Realised P&L
- $-86.94
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $5.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.045 | $3.55 | −$26.45 |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.009 | $1.70 | −$8.30 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? · No | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.60 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? · No | 0.132 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.24at 0.210US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$47.11at 0.266Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$43.16at 0.190Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$40.03at 0.237Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
- +$8.14at 0.860Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 18:15 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | BUY | 0.3641444909 | $15.00 |
| 06-14 18:14 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.112 | $14.12 |
| 06-10 21:27 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | BUY | 0.4463929826 | $50.00 |
| 06-10 21:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | SELL | 0.3842912125 | $45.13 |
| 06-10 21:26 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | BUY | 0.4257142461 | $50.00 |
| 06-10 21:14 | Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | BUY | 0.1649999879 | $10.00 |
| 06-09 16:49 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1189999932 | $15.00 |
| 06-08 17:51 | Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.0560217123 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 20:51 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.1491053566 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 18:19 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.2661299296 | $20.00 |
| 05-23 12:49 | Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY | 0.8599999986 | $50.00 |
| 05-20 13:06 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY | 0.1320754663 | $20.00 |
| 04-17 06:44 | Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 04-12 08:48 | Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 04-11 09:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $15.52 |