0x877e31835b076ed018b6b53c3468a6ed19b0a83c-1791943540922
0x877e31835b076ed018b6b53c3468a6ed19b0a83c
- Realised P&L
- $-3.09
- Volume
- $99.66
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $5.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.835 | $5.22 | +$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.81at 0.860Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get less than 40 million views on week 1?
- +$0.56at 0.900Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.740Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.905Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 02:32 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.053 | $0.29 |
| 10-15 04:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.998999938 | $15.05 |
| 10-15 02:25 | Will Trump say "Suicide" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | BUY | 0.9989999373 | $15.04 |
| 10-14 04:08 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $14.99 |