FreeBird9
0x876f592240a711a038a651a99c1ad0b53e84e56f
- Realised P&L
- $-432.31
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $609.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No | 0.928 | 0.956 | $261.12 | +$7.65 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.986 | $185.57 | +$8.57 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.018 | $80.92 | −$24.20 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.645 | $56.12 | +$5.75 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.976 | $25.36 | +$1.18 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.005 | $0.69 | −$2.73 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.40at 0.740Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?
- +$59.97at 0.620Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$55.52at 0.732Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?
- +$54.60at 0.734Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?
- +$6.27at 0.970Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 09:04 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5788505747 | $50.36 |
| 09-02 08:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.026 | $0.94 |
| 09-02 07:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.027 | $0.97 |
| 09-02 07:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.50 |
| 09-01 14:30 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.03 | $50.10 |
| 09-01 14:29 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.56 |
| 09-01 14:28 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0282307692 | $1.47 |
| 09-01 08:53 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9341550067 | $180.80 |
| 08-29 16:10 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.02 | $52.00 |
| 08-29 16:08 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.928 | $48.14 |
| 08-29 16:02 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.928 | $198.73 |
| 07-10 10:36 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | SELL | 0.868 | $153.64 |
| 07-10 10:35 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | SELL | 0.8681805054 | $120.24 |
| 07-10 10:34 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $317.73 |
| 07-06 14:30 | Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | SELL | 0.838 | $92.18 |