123597
0x871ecaa5dc2987e9d49d40e1de3a00fdf8adfb2f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.01
- Volume
- $824.95
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $11.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No | 0.989 | 0.935 | $9.35 | −$0.54 |
| Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.055 | $1.45 | −$3.55 |
| Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.055 | $1.11 | −$0.93 |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? · No | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET · Up | 0.583 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.91 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET · Up | 0.631 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.74at 0.748Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
- +$10.11at 0.748Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.748Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?
- +$2.56at 0.746Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 27?
- +$2.54at 0.748Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 03:07 | Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 08-09 03:06 | Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.04 |
| 08-09 03:02 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $11.94 |
| 07-26 02:52 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999669 | $16.00 |
| 07-19 02:35 | Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 02:34 | Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 02:32 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 04:44 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 07-02 03:29 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.976 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 03:27 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.98 | $30.00 |
| 06-23 03:34 | Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9969999771 | $40.00 |
| 06-13 05:26 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.8299998672 | $3.00 |
| 06-13 05:26 | Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $3.00 |
| 06-13 05:25 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.6299999454 | $3.00 |
| 05-31 07:22 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999656 | $25.00 |