win0821
0x86f430b1ae71f57c702fc6ba7472a031a43a5845
- Realised P&L
- $-184.37
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $111.88
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · No | 0.226 | 0.145 | $46.23 | −$25.85 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? · No | 0.531 | 0.400 | $29.53 | −$9.65 |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? · No | 0.557 | 0.386 | $17.66 | −$7.84 |
| Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes | 0.449 | 0.090 | $13.76 | −$54.50 |
| Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election? · No | 0.260 | 0.200 | $4.70 | −$1.41 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? · No | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.30at 0.523Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
- +$4.94at 0.424Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
- +$2.93at 0.180Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
- +$1.32at 0.710Will Khathutshelo Rasilingwane be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?
- +$0.80at 0.100US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 17:13 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 10-06 10:19 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 10-06 10:19 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.46 | $28.48 |
| 10-06 10:19 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.46 | $47.44 |
| 10-03 18:06 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 10-01 12:17 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $8.20 |
| 09-30 22:50 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 09-30 21:21 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | SELL | 0.155 | $3.10 |
| 09-30 14:28 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.19 | $6.69 |
| 09-30 14:28 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.19 | $53.88 |
| 09-30 14:28 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.258 | $0.29 |
| 09-30 14:28 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2 | $19.59 |
| 09-30 14:27 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2 | $39.43 |
| 09-26 00:29 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 09-26 00:29 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.4159079088 | $27.19 |