bpol1863
0x86f3ac050b1750b5f11e5e7431a14a45a2b0c859
- Realised P&L
- $-159.35
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $11.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic · Antonia Ruzic | 0.280 | 1.000 | $3.57 | +$2.57 |
| KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles · LG Twins | 0.460 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$1.17 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.580 | 1.000 | $1.72 | +$0.72 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.120 | $1.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.540 | $1.38 | +$0.38 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.790 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders · Islanders | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Knicks vs. Nuggets · Nuggets | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Suns vs. Kings · Kings | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Hornets · Mavericks | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Nets vs. Heat · Nets | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Rice Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green · Rice Owls | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.89 |
| Butler Bulldogs vs. DePaul Blue Demons · DePaul Blue Demons | 0.565 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.59 |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.05at 0.810Mavericks vs. Rockets
- +$10.81at 0.070Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$10.30at 0.660Magic vs. Cavaliers
- +$2.82at 0.639Raptors vs. Rockets
- +$2.71at 0.480Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 03:50 | Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 15:29 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 04:40 | National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 07:11 | KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 08:46 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 05-31 05:35 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 05-14 01:14 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 04-29 06:06 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 02:51 | Hurricanes vs. Islanders | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 08:28 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 03-10 07:53 | Raptors vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.6390002098 | $5.00 |
| 03-07 05:25 | Butler Bulldogs vs. DePaul Blue Demons | BUY | 0.5899999992 | $29.75 |
| 03-07 05:24 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.979 | $896.57 |
| 03-07 05:01 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.98 | $897.49 |
| 03-06 05:25 | Knicks vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |