0x86CF7D6b99ce1eed604f7D76dC05Fd9b8F2Cd8A5-1724145899566
0x86cf7d6b99ce1eed604f7d76dc05fd9b8f2cd8a5
- Realised P&L
- $-23.10
- Volume
- $302.63
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $11.82
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.365 | $7.30 | −$0.30 |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.630 | 0.895 | $2.42 | +$0.72 |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.105 | $2.10 | −$4.30 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September? · No | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.58 |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Raptors vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.09at 0.330Nuggets vs. Warriors
- +$4.55at 0.579Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September?
- +$1.59at 0.850Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
- +$1.34at 0.912Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
- +$0.90at 0.690Will Bitcoin reach $118k August 18–24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 15:18 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 02-22 12:59 | Mavericks vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.4599999264 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:47 | Nets vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.8 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:39 | Raptors vs. Bucks | BUY | 0.4199999272 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:36 | Nuggets vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.3299999296 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 10:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | BUY | 0.8799999061 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 14:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | SELL | 0.958 | $12.17 |
| 02-19 12:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.00 |
| 02-19 12:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.00 |
| 02-19 11:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | BUY | 0.9139999884 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 11:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | SELL | 0.84 | $12.18 |
| 02-19 11:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | BUY | 0.965 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 09:49 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | BUY | 0.9429997155 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 09:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | BUY | 0.9399997744 | $3.00 |
| 02-19 08:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | BUY | 0.9479999924 | $3.00 |