kneppy37
0x866ac6b0aa811f5e62564b6148efdbbaa0f6db17
- Realised P&L
- $-794.01
- Volume
- $45.4k
- Markets traded
- 302
- Open portfolio
- $0.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded302
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$713.28at 0.393Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
- +$295.16at 0.370Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
- +$268.11at 0.498Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
- +$246.56at 0.410Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
- +$240.79at 0.571XRP Up or Down - February 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-18 00:59 | Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.132 | $0.92 |
| 04-18 00:59 | Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? | SELL | 0.065 | $0.58 |
| 04-18 00:59 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.118 | $1.42 |
| 04-18 00:59 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.1548333333 | $2.79 |
| 04-18 00:59 | Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.54 |
| 04-18 00:59 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $1.03 |
| 04-18 00:58 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.045 | $2.07 |
| 04-18 00:58 | Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.13 |
| 04-18 00:58 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.042 | $1.26 |
| 04-15 09:30 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16? | BUY | 0.100537954 | $5.91 |
| 04-15 09:00 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 17? | BUY | 0.11 | $4.81 |
| 04-15 09:00 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 16? | BUY | 0.0858287924 | $6.79 |
| 04-15 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.15 |
| 04-15 07:30 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? | BUY | 0.0959505611 | $5.37 |
| 04-15 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 16? | BUY | 0.07 | $4.89 |