0x866738fd77f1fed0c005e288e034333270e99572
- Realised P&L
- $2.18
- Volume
- $212.42
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $8.00
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.520 | 0.895 | $3.44 | +$1.44 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.943 | $2.56 | +$0.55 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.230 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$5.94at 0.258S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$5.14at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 14:23 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 16:57 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 08:14 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 04:57 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 17:54 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 17:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 08:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 18:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 10:09 | Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.7089996607 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 23:20 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 13:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 03:22 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 18:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 17:09 | Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 08:39 | Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |