ThamesRiver
0x86653d7be6190dadbe5df3a1ed3c94288f9b1b75
- Realised P&L
- $-685.29
- Volume
- $21.3k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $278.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Solana reach $190 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $88.96 | +$0.04 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.955 | $67.77 | −$0.60 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $51.87 | −$0.08 |
| Will XRP reach $2.20 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 0.990 | $38.61 | −$0.35 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.80 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 0.990 | $31.68 | −$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.65at 0.981Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31?
- +$11.62at 0.918Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
- +$11.52at 0.984Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$11.46at 0.960Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$8.02at 0.984Trump out as President by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 04:23 | Will XRP dip to $0.80 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.97 |
| 10-08 04:22 | Will XRP reach $2.20 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.96 |
| 10-08 04:22 | Will Solana dip to $50 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $51.95 |
| 10-08 04:21 | Will Solana reach $190 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.91 |
| 10-07 13:14 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $68.37 |
| 09-03 09:22 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.987 | $25.68 |
| 08-21 07:23 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $88.73 |
| 08-21 07:22 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $182.27 |
| 08-18 06:36 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on August 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.89 |
| 08-18 06:35 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on August 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $136.00 |
| 08-12 06:29 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.9984057099 | $168.00 |
| 08-12 06:28 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-05 08:41 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $280.72 |
| 08-01 16:06 | Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $231.70 |
| 07-25 00:40 | Will Ethena reach $0.28 in July? | BUY | 0.998876932 | $131.00 |