CrystalFlores5630
0x864a8d4bb8e6751fab9638b458cb36e4e6e69ed1
- Realised P&L
- $247.59
- Volume
- $100.0k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.919 | $1.3k | +$257.80 |
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.720 | $298.80 | +$29.05 |
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · Yes | 0.748 | 0.587 | $204.28 | −$56.03 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.745 | $32.03 | +$25.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$659.12at 0.120Dundee United FC vs. St Mirren FC: O/U 1.5
- +$305.98at 0.157Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$298.62at 0.210North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
- +$293.67at 0.610Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week?
- +$180.36at 0.730Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 08:22 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $543.90 |
| 04-11 06:38 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $387.00 |
| 04-11 06:37 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $429.14 |
| 04-10 17:43 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $269.75 |
| 04-10 16:47 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $528.36 |
| 04-09 23:11 | Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.75 | $708.75 |
| 04-09 12:19 | Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $89.96 |
| 04-07 16:04 | Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $93.42 |
| 04-07 13:25 | Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.75 | $708.75 |
| 04-07 12:42 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $835.12 |
| 03-25 16:53 | Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.66 | $920.04 |
| 03-24 14:52 | Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.61 | $459.33 |
| 03-24 14:29 | Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.64 | $892.16 |
| 03-24 04:59 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $183.30 |
| 03-24 04:49 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $258.06 |