CrystalFlores5630
0x864a8d4bb8e6751fab9638b458cb36e4e6e69ed1
- Realised P&L
- $255.21
- Volume
- $101.6k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $692.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.820 | $340.30 | +$70.55 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30? · Yes | 0.948 | 1.000 | $200.00 | +$10.49 |
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · Yes | 0.748 | 0.367 | $127.89 | −$132.41 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.570 | $24.51 | +$17.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$659.12at 0.120Dundee United FC vs. St Mirren FC: O/U 1.5
- +$305.98at 0.157Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$298.62at 0.210North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
- +$293.67at 0.610Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week?
- +$265.98at 0.730Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 23:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30? | BUY | 0.9475465 | $189.51 |
| 04-12 08:22 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $543.90 |
| 04-11 06:38 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $387.00 |
| 04-11 06:37 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $429.14 |
| 04-10 17:43 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $269.75 |
| 04-10 16:47 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $528.36 |
| 04-09 23:11 | Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.75 | $708.75 |
| 04-09 12:19 | Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $89.96 |
| 04-07 16:04 | Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $93.42 |
| 04-07 13:25 | Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.75 | $708.75 |
| 04-07 12:42 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $835.12 |
| 03-25 16:53 | Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.66 | $920.04 |
| 03-24 14:52 | Will Trump post "Ballroom" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.61 | $459.33 |
| 03-24 14:29 | Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.64 | $892.16 |
| 03-24 04:59 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $183.30 |