Love.always.wins.over.hatred.and.envy
0x8642cd0a25d32679b4b6ba00cc3341dfd8f468d9
- Realised P&L
- $-3.9k
- Volume
- $141.3k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$637.66at 0.719Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$509.39at 0.517New Pope in 2025?
- +$430.98at 0.804Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
- +$268.28at 0.932Megaquake in February?
- +$229.34at 0.661Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 19:05 | Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.4840505349 | $200.00 |
| 08-13 05:02 | Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.1340800198 | $50.00 |
| 08-13 05:00 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.7925175774 | $300.00 |
| 08-08 17:42 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $200.00 |
| 08-08 12:59 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.7699999975 | $200.00 |
| 08-04 20:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $44.61 |
| 08-04 20:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $85.00 |
| 08-02 13:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 13:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.6499999902 | $50.00 |
| 08-01 10:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.75 | $587.80 |
| 07-30 16:52 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 07-26 11:48 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.6299999991 | $40.00 |
| 07-26 11:19 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $306.98 |
| 07-25 14:22 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $400.00 |
| 04-23 17:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $2.2k |