0x8635f2d64a36165ba7a3eb141d825b0ca229a26b
0x8635f2d64a36165ba7a3eb141d825b0ca229a26b
- Realised P&L
- $-8.16
- Volume
- $248.03
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $2.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.625 | $2.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.110 | $0.34 | −$0.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.71at 0.350US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.460Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 05:07 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 08:32 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999222 | $1.11 |
| 09-17 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:05 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 13:17 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 22:30 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 14:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 19:54 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 11:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 13:26 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 03:47 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.6389999773 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 17:09 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 08:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 06:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 22:23 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |