0x86352E9dCD7F13C767bB1BeF84352836a450CE6b-1775596338853
0x86352e9dcd7f13c767bb1bef84352836a450ce6b
- Realised P&L
- $-5.58
- Volume
- $85.30
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $4.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.959 | $2.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will Gianni Infantino be the next President of FIFA? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.765 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.34at 0.748Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?
- +$0.28at 0.878Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
- +$0.14at 0.875Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?
- +$0.12at 0.890Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$0.10at 0.913GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 14:43 | Will Gianni Infantino be the next President of FIFA? | BUY | 0.7799998674 | $2.00 |
| 10-09 05:39 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 06-14 18:22 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 05-20 14:00 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999656 | $2.00 |
| 05-17 16:05 | GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 05:59 | Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.8739997063 | $2.00 |
| 05-10 07:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.12 |
| 04-30 20:44 | Will Sam Altman testify against Musk? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 20:50 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 04-22 11:45 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8899994126 | $1.00 |
| 04-12 20:11 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.08 |
| 04-12 11:02 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 04-08 06:57 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 04-08 06:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.02 |
| 04-08 06:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.23 |