thompsonalicia
0x86320a5d1bcf9dd7d0c630bba68ca9144a62ffb3
- Realised P&L
- $47.95
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $21.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rastislav Trnka win the 2026 Košice Region gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.730 | $11.07 | +$1.97 |
| Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.659 | 0.884 | $10.27 | +$2.61 |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.65at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$44.61at 0.470Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$19.56at 0.635Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
- +$15.29at 0.709Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?
- +$7.53at 0.650W35 Wagga Wagga: Kanon Sawashiro vs Nagi Hanatani
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 03:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.7899999942 | $13.60 |
| 01-31 13:49 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.07 |
| 01-31 13:43 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.01 |
| 01-30 16:22 | Will Chainlink hit $17 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.42 |
| 01-30 13:06 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9940648115 | $12.66 |
| 01-30 12:26 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.72 |
| 12-30 18:27 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.48 |
| 12-30 13:48 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.9979999008 | $4.87 |
| 12-30 09:31 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.99 |
| 12-29 22:15 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.53 |
| 12-29 22:02 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.01 |
| 10-30 19:23 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $24.52 |
| 10-30 18:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.992 | $26.49 |
| 09-29 14:42 | Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | BUY | 0.997999994 | $17.44 |
| 09-29 04:08 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.03 |