PolyBot

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Traders

alatar345

0x862ae143171256226ec08afde8f51f7a4b74a80c

Realised P&L
$100.79
Volume
$3.3k
Markets traded
33
Open portfolio
$31.38

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded33
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? · Yes0.0680.202$14.85+$9.85
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3800.155$8.16−$11.84
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No0.1400.125$4.46−$0.54
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? · Yes0.1500.100$3.33−$1.67
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.0800.045$0.57−$0.43
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3260.000$0.00−$5.00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? · Yes0.3500.000$0.00−$20.00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$20.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.5500.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$5.00
France leading at halftime? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? · Yes0.5800.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? · Yes0.0410.000$0.00−$5.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · No0.3900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.1920.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 16:49Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?BUY0.149999997$5.00
10-14 04:05Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.1399999989$5.00
09-26 04:01Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?BUY0.0679999998$5.00
09-08 19:29Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?BUY0.0277227719$1.00
07-25 16:16Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.08$1.00
07-24 18:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.3899998479$1.00
07-19 16:11Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.55$1.00
07-14 19:11France leading at halftime?BUY0.2699998542$1.00
07-10 19:51Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?SELL0.1325$4.61
07-10 19:32Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.0574999741$2.00
07-08 20:20Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.3259999627$5.00
07-01 17:38Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?SELL0.5$1.39
07-01 17:35Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?BUY0.3599998704$1.00
06-30 18:35Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?SELL0.54$10.80
06-30 18:28Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?BUY0.25$5.00