D7422D98eA0d5b6Dd942a8eEd1d2a61945bFd0
0x861f4149171db053c73382c40d2c7e5408fd177d
- Realised P&L
- $44.8k
- Volume
- $691.2k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $16.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.558 | 0.085 | $7.5k | −$41.8k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.041 | $6.2k | −$57.1k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.029 | $1.5k | −$17.8k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.021 | $500.97 | −$5.0k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.125 | $297.33 | −$878.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.020 | $90.76 | −$633.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.5kat 0.603Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$12.9kat 0.694Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.27at 0.490Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$4.43at 0.610Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$1.13at 0.470Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 12:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $20.21 |
| 08-21 09:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999685 | $3.00 |
| 08-21 09:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1137476219 | $185.44 |
| 08-21 08:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $16.23 |
| 08-05 06:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 08:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999818 | $6.89 |
| 07-26 09:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999747 | $6.82 |
| 07-25 07:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999702 | $6.47 |
| 07-24 06:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999746 | $5.99 |
| 07-23 07:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999775 | $5.93 |
| 07-22 06:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999832 | $13.37 |
| 07-21 17:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $66.76 |
| 07-21 07:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999983 | $144.75 |
| 07-21 07:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999719 | $6.54 |
| 07-20 06:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999865 | $10.79 |