Candela
0x8611527a75891f117c74d4a0843ec659f5b7d340
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $8.89M
- Markets traded
- 2,581
- Open portfolio
- $769.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,581
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $499.75 | +$0.75 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 1? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $269.87 | +$0.41 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 14? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.60 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$379.21at 0.442Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$108.92at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?
- +$104.76at 0.993Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23?
- +$70.24at 0.587Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs
- +$59.45at 0.627Heat vs. Raptors
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 14:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $45.82 |
| 09-30 14:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $89.73 |
| 09-30 14:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9979814815 | $269.46 |
| 09-30 14:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 09-30 14:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.998992604 | $675.36 |
| 09-30 14:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $795.97 |
| 09-30 13:36 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-30 13:34 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.91 |
| 09-30 13:32 | Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9983967517 | $6.5k |
| 09-30 13:29 | Will the price of Solana be above $110 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 09-30 13:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.995910165 | $2.0k |
| 09-30 13:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.5k |
| 09-30 13:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.0k |
| 09-29 13:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.4k |
| 09-28 13:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $479.04 |