4666ss
0x8608e59c6868b9a599e3686a57c4f05f4a2eb628
- Realised P&L
- $-517.30
- Volume
- $26.8k
- Markets traded
- 106
- Open portfolio
- $49.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded106
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $19.97 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $19.97 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $9.98 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19? · No | 0.995 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.95 |
| Mariners vs. Blue Jays · Mariners | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$506.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.04at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$15.03at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
- +$13.02at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$10.02at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
- +$6.22at 0.740Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 09-19 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 09-19 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 09-01 13:43 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 09-01 13:43 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-24 15:20 | Will CZ post 120-139 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-24 15:20 | Will CZ post 140-159 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-24 15:20 | Will CZ post 160-179 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-24 15:20 | Will CZ post 180-199 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 08-10 15:34 | Will CZ post 120-139 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-10 15:34 | Will CZ post 140-159 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-10 15:34 | Will CZ post 160-179 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-10 15:34 | Will CZ post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-10 15:34 | Will CZ post 200+ posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.98 |
| 07-16 15:56 | Will CZ post 80-99 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |