jaytaotao
0x85de1361efd5c682f6eb7d3a63306bf425373717
- Realised P&L
- $3.3k
- Volume
- $211.8k
- Markets traded
- 215
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded215
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.815 | $489.00 | −$51.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.831 | $439.39 | −$57.36 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.904 | 0.739 | $221.56 | −$49.65 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.933 | 0.824 | $164.80 | −$21.80 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · No | 0.920 | 0.773 | $154.70 | −$29.30 |
| Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? · No | 0.708 | 0.776 | $140.63 | +$12.35 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.800 | 0.680 | $16.81 | −$2.97 |
| Neutrl FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.966 | 0.977 | $9.16 | +$0.10 |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors · Grizzlies | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.40 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Warriors · Trail Blazers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.60 |
| Raptors vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.13 |
| Lakers vs. Kings · Kings | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.50 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Knicks vs. Timberwolves · Knicks | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$185.50 |
| Bulls vs. Cavaliers · Bulls | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$432.00at 0.580Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$423.30at 0.400Pistons vs. Cavaliers
- +$351.80at 0.397Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$344.99at 0.651Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$312.70at 0.410Timberwolves vs. Bucks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:11 | Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7078517272 | $128.28 |
| 07-03 00:13 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0236629443 | $14.81 |
| 07-02 23:27 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $19.80 |
| 06-29 17:57 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0321614256 | $0.31 |
| 06-29 17:57 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.032 | $7.92 |
| 05-18 11:51 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL | 0.979 | $293.70 |
| 04-22 01:27 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.81 | $5.34 |
| 04-21 12:07 | USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5118096962 | $107.47 |
| 04-11 02:40 | Neutrl FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9805220713 | $69.30 |
| 04-11 02:39 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8129 | $81.29 |
| 04-09 09:22 | Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.939 | $187.80 |
| 04-05 22:52 | USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.17 | $8.31 |
| 03-31 12:57 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.92 | $258.27 |
| 03-31 12:36 | EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.92 | $35.45 |
| 03-30 09:07 | Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9576944444 | $275.82 |