LJa7io23MCv954j
0x85a85805bcbdf2e629788adac1420b6b53949281
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $1.28M
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $121.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.3kat 0.463Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
- +$9.2kat 0.352 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$5.3kat 0.718Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$4.7kat 0.643Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$4.5kat 0.598US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 12:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.3k |
| 11-01 08:19 | Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7943015473 | $631.00 |
| 11-01 08:16 | Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799291218 | $809.00 |
| 10-31 17:47 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.7199999997 | $95.55 |
| 10-30 03:58 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | BUY | 0.8299999992 | $699.96 |
| 10-30 03:58 | Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.5756189201 | $3.8k |
| 10-30 03:53 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.9160091936 | $3.2k |
| 10-30 03:45 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.991262783 | $1.3k |
| 10-28 16:56 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.26243134 | $2.9k |
| 10-28 04:14 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | SELL | 0.9703729831 | $7.3k |
| 10-27 20:08 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.86 | $1.1k |
| 10-27 20:05 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.2500523334 | $1.1k |
| 10-27 04:05 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.7099999999 | $3.1k |
| 10-27 04:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9803327264 | $3.1k |
| 10-26 10:25 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.8853049949 | $2.3k |