Guessingkbn-wx
0x859c09ad24cb3c072c5427579e1da0cb8e1a6eaf
- Realised P&L
- $568.54
- Volume
- $69.5k
- Markets traded
- 728
- Open portfolio
- $57.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded728
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.074 | $41.18 | +$25.46 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.420 | $11.90 | +$2.37 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.110 | $4.17 | −$0.38 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.38 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 20? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$259.12at 0.003Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 6?
- +$251.71at 0.029Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 28?
- +$119.97at 0.243Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 15?
- +$103.38at 0.234Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?
- +$94.01at 0.216Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 15:07 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.04 |
| 09-22 17:06 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.27 | $8.26 |
| 09-22 04:24 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.0465354367 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 04:24 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.1634615347 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 14:22 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.97 | $32.01 |
| 09-20 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 09-20 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.70 |
| 09-20 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.5386363636 | $11.85 |
| 09-20 10:59 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.56 | $7.28 |
| 09-20 10:58 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.14 | $0.84 |
| 09-20 10:58 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.15 | $4.60 |
| 09-20 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.36 | $18.00 |
| 09-20 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-20 05:09 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.37 | $12.95 |