0x858926eF3c4A40fF426B3cdb19235f0F863F0D2b-1769801152330
0x858926ef3c4a40ff426b3cdb19235f0f863f0d2b
- Realised P&L
- $-24.95
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $7.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.25at 0.358Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?
- +$30.88at 0.031Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$9.79at 0.574Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
- +$5.92at 0.110Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- +$4.06at 0.715Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 15:18 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.00 |
| 05-14 02:52 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.460784252 | $3.00 |
| 05-14 02:51 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.00 |
| 05-14 02:51 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5199999861 | $3.00 |
| 03-16 18:14 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.08 |
| 03-13 16:40 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 03:12 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2490002629 | $1.00 |
| 03-11 17:47 | North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $1.40 |
| 03-11 03:35 | North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 03-11 02:05 | Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $2.24 |
| 03-09 21:49 | Will Trump say "Golden Age" during Miami address? | SELL | 0.782 | $1.42 |
| 03-09 21:11 | Will Trump say "Golden Age" during Miami address? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 03-09 15:13 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | SELL | 0.88 | $2.00 |
| 03-09 15:07 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 03-06 03:16 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |