PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x857FDD45b3b9Bf70b2f677AD456a88bBC422039F-1772320428369

0x857fdd45b3b9bf70b2f677ad456a88bbc422039f

Realised P&L
$-6.8k
Volume
$190.6k
Markets traded
474
Open portfolio
$443.02

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded474
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration88.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2780.547$393.88+$193.89
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.3300.159$48.03$51.97
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · Yes0.3290.009$0.82$29.18
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · Yes0.2340.001$0.28$131.72
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET · Up0.4080.000$0.00$69.08
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET · Up0.5470.000$0.00$98.11
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET · Down0.2680.000$0.00$268.41
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET · Down0.3990.000$0.00$24.07
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET · Up0.2850.000$0.00$215.93
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET · Down0.5390.000$0.00$100.29
Iran coup attempt by June 30? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$35.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET · Up0.3570.000$0.00$39.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET · Down0.3350.000$0.00$80.42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET · Up0.2820.000$0.00$78.70
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET · Up0.3700.000$0.00$49.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 15:02Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4089999991$130.00
07-18 09:43Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ETBUY0.2799999854$10.00
07-17 22:18Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ETBUY0.01$5.00
07-17 22:18Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ETBUY0.0299999943$5.00
07-17 21:57Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.4299999871$5.00
07-17 21:51Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ETBUY0.2199999727$5.00
07-17 21:48Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ETBUY0.5399999654$5.00
07-17 21:44Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ETBUY0.3799999742$5.00
06-13 21:51Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?BUY0.0753922185$92.38
06-09 10:40Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ETBUY0.4899999804$5.00
06-09 10:24Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.04$123.00
05-30 19:39Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?BUY0.6447974571$123.00
05-30 09:40Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ETBUY0.4$5.00
05-30 09:38Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ETBUY0.3399999633$5.00
05-27 19:42Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026?BUY0.0699999953$13.00