ardenypoput1
0x8560d946081afecefe33c218a58b63b8e05271b0
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $31.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $26.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · No | 0.790 | 0.695 | $11.64 | −$1.59 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.515 | $10.95 | −$0.74 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.081 | $3.62 | −$6.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.490Stars vs. Kings
- +$1.6kat 0.390Lakers vs. Rockets
- +$1.0kat 0.500Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04?
- +$582.68at 0.633Magic vs. Knicks
- +$216.00at 0.64076ers vs. Hornets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 15:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.70 |
| 09-09 15:38 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.73 | $11.74 |
| 08-17 14:51 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.79 | $25.94 |
| 07-09 23:25 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.822 | $21.55 |
| 07-09 23:25 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | SELL | 0.769660596 | $9.30 |
| 07-09 23:25 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.198 | $12.87 |
| 06-25 13:41 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | BUY | 0.84 | $10.15 |
| 05-05 21:41 | FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.94 | $9.54 |
| 04-30 21:56 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.1k |
| 02-13 04:21 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $9.57 |
| 12-31 03:26 | Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $20.21 |
| 10-20 23:57 | Mariners vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.46 | $1.0k |
| 10-20 12:24 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.936 | $18.72 |
| 10-20 12:24 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.23 | $10.35 |
| 10-20 12:24 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.29 | $18.85 |