skillboy
0x8544ef91221303bafee262fde06cf5b8e6183abe
- Realised P&L
- $-167.70
- Volume
- $132.3k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $137.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.570 | 0.405 | $40.50 | −$16.50 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.405 | $40.50 | −$15.50 |
| Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.305 | $30.50 | −$2.50 |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.225 | $22.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $3.28 | −$16.42 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.936 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$131.00 |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.50at 0.770Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$15.59at 0.004Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$12.15at 0.630Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$10.72at 0.944MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
- +$9.87at 0.911Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 10:16 | Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 09-09 10:16 | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 09-09 10:16 | Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.602 | $12.04 |
| 07-31 13:19 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 07-31 13:17 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 07-31 13:16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.85 | $113.90 |
| 07-31 13:16 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.002 | $14.16 |
| 06-19 11:17 | Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $21.23 |
| 06-19 11:17 | Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8934 | $17.87 |
| 05-29 14:58 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $19.71 |
| 05-29 14:57 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.981 | $77.50 |
| 04-09 03:58 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $116.58 |
| 04-09 03:56 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.007 | $36.38 |
| 03-29 02:20 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.972 | $76.79 |
| 02-26 11:36 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.004 | $20.79 |