0x8538364f18f471Ea09003455Bc63054a8359bD41-1770242660586
0x8538364f18f471ea09003455bc63054a8359bd41
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $176.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $698.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.135 | $456.26 | −$95.74 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.034 | $241.96 | −$265.84 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance · Norway | 0.325 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.95 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.65 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.50 |
| Rams vs. Broncos · Rams | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$443.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$321.51at 0.299US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$20.17at 0.310US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$-0.00at 0.130US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
- +$-0.56at 0.242Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$-0.90at 0.110US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 04:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $109.00 |
| 11-01 03:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.063559678 | $237.80 |
| 11-01 00:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $270.00 |
| 10-28 19:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1684242091 | $337.00 |
| 10-28 18:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0287542877 | $345.00 |
| 10-28 18:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $106.00 |
| 10-28 17:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0191123475 | $98.80 |
| 10-28 15:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0171728698 | $432.22 |
| 10-27 23:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $5.54 |
| 10-27 23:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0310783171 | $179.10 |
| 10-27 23:04 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4215969422 | $423.83 |
| 10-27 04:13 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5739605045 | $577.00 |
| 10-27 04:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0491733058 | $946.00 |
| 10-27 03:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0246840494 | $152.35 |
| 10-27 03:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0321674234 | $771.91 |