0x8503cb70b0f257dcc85c93c31144c13498ce0536
0x8503cb70b0f257dcc85c93c31144c13498ce0536
- Realised P&L
- $-3.71
- Volume
- $197.91
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $3.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.971 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.215 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.325 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.093 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.80at 0.650Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 02:26 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 13:34 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 05:34 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 21:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 12:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 11:58 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:13 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 16:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 06:36 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 22:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 13:46 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:33 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 15:21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 03:02 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 16:13 | Will Macy's say "Amazon" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |