fkidd
0x84d1aac6b1d58b59832da1284998d45e1a628cbb
- Realised P&L
- $85.17
- Volume
- $13.6k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $23.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting? · Yes | 0.740 | 1.000 | $12.27 | +$3.19 |
| Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.610 | 0.565 | $10.91 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.40at 0.449Will there be a US Government shutdown?
- +$36.24at 0.657Cardinals vs. Panthers
- +$35.99at 0.650Texans vs. Chiefs
- +$2.53at 0.999Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April?
- +$1.76at 0.700Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 20:44 | Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.6099999814 | $11.78 |
| 01-31 13:35 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? | BUY | 0.9989998619 | $4.39 |
| 01-31 13:21 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.997 | $22.63 |
| 01-30 15:55 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.83 |
| 01-30 12:04 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.76 |
| 01-30 12:02 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $44.67 |
| 12-30 17:04 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.01 |
| 12-30 11:52 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.77 |
| 12-29 20:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999932 | $29.77 |
| 12-29 18:04 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999934 | $80.39 |
| 10-31 16:24 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.38 |
| 10-31 15:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.70 |
| 10-31 15:22 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $29.12 |
| 10-30 18:10 | Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.78 |
| 10-08 02:43 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $31.38 |