GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix
0x84c68a4407d3b974ac3e8a47442c045753de0c95
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $354.9k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $584.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? · Yes | 0.213 | 0.215 | $329.63 | +$2.92 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.165 | $254.95 | +$1.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.174KSI's "Thick Of It" debuts on Billboard hot 100?
- +$1.6kat 0.030Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
- +$1.1kat 0.514Will Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Las Vegas rally on October 24?
- +$894.67at 0.402Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$807.53at 0.343Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 00:56 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.2130967759 | $326.71 |
| 09-24 00:55 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $338.99 |
| 09-22 18:56 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31? | BUY | 0.1637373242 | $253.00 |
| 09-22 18:56 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.1008644 | $252.16 |
| 09-20 01:22 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.148424812 | $1.0k |
| 04-17 17:42 | Will Trump say "Secret Service" during TPUSA events on April 17? | BUY | 0.3 | $9.86 |
| 04-17 17:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | SELL | 0.0235429413 | $10.87 |
| 04-14 18:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | BUY | 0.1241428332 | $55.22 |
| 04-14 18:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | SELL | 0.021 | $61.80 |
| 04-12 19:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.0642848743 | $181.83 |
| 04-12 19:40 | Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally? | SELL | 0.99 | $196.53 |
| 04-12 06:29 | Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally? | BUY | 0.5035075223 | $99.96 |
| 04-12 06:28 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.1312075709 | $99.96 |
| 04-11 06:35 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.1487531928 | $113.33 |
| 04-11 06:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | SELL | 0.013 | $117.99 |